Frank Sawyer is on a 15 of 24 (63%) UEFA Champions League run -- and he furthers his 13 of 20 (65%) UCL Game of the Month/Year mark with his 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year at 3 PM ET!
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THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship. This golf resort hosted the 2017 PGA Championship as well as the 2022 President’s Cup. This is a Par 71 tournament with three Par 5 holes. This course is one of the longest on the tour consisting of 7558 yards. Six of the Par 4 holes are at least 460 yards long. Just under 73% of the second shots on this course are from 150 yards or further away from the tee for the professionals. The fairways are wide with an average distance of 33.4 yards. The rough is thick up to 2 1/2 inches of ryegrass. Water hazards impact seven of the holes and there are 61 sand bunkers. The putting surface consists of new TIF Eagle Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis grass. The greens average 6578 square feet while reaching up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The forecast calls for some possible rain on Thursday. With 69 professionals competing this week with no weekend cut, this is the sixth signature event on the tour this year with the more lucrative payouts.
LONG SHOT: Hideki Matsuyama (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Matsuyama (7137) versus Viktor Hovland (7138) in Round One head-to-head props (and gab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 12:25 PM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Hideki Matsuyama who is listed a +3500 odds a DraftKings. We were on Matsuyama for the Masters — and despite his coming off a tie for seventh place at the Valero Open, I now discovered that he was complaining about being out of form. The weather was an issue for Day One at Augusta as well — and his 10:15 AM ET got pushed back with the rest of the tournament but he still shot four over par on that Thursday before settling for a tie for 38th place. He also commented on being fatigued — so taking four weeks off should help. Matsuyama was in great form earlier this season — and we are getting him at a great price this week. After struggling with his driver last year, Matsuyama has resolved those issues — and demonstrated his ability to find his outstanding game again. His victory at the Genesis Invitational in February was one of the most impressive for any PGA Tour professional his season (including Scottie Scheffler). He also sandwiched a solid 12th place at Bay Hill between these efforts where he improved in both Shots-Gained: Off-the-Teem and Shots-Gained: Around the Green from the metrics he put up in those categories when winning at the Riviera Country Club at the Genesis Invitational. When Matsuyama is cooking, he is one of the best ball-strikers in the world. Going into the Valero Open, he led the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 36 rounds — and he ranked 12th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Greeen in his last 36 rounds. He went into the Valero Open leading the tour in Tee-to-Green by 0.33 strokes per round over the next closest professions in his previous 12 rounds. In his last 12 rounds going into that event, he was also top-ten on the tour in Driving, Approach, and Short Game. Matsuyama ranks second on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and improvement from his standing of fourth going into the Masters. He is also a wizard with his chipper and getting up and down — he leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He has played Quail Hollow six times — and he made the cut all six times. His best result was at the 2017 PGA Championship where he finished in fifth place — but blew the lead there, so he may have a chip on his shoulder to prove something here.
Matsuyama is linked with Viktor Hovland for Round One head-to-head props. Hovland is in a massive funk right now. It’s not just that he has only one top-twenty finish in his tournaments this year. It’s that he seems to be in an existential crisis despite winning the FedEx Championship last year (and we were on him!). In his last five tournaments, he has lost strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, and Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. This is his first tournament since missing the cut at the Masters. He is going through a carousel of coaches trying to find the answer to a multitude of questions. He finished third at this tournament in 2021 but fell back to 43rd place last year. His game is far off from those better days. Take Matsuyama (7137) versus Hovland (7138) in Round One (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship. This golf resort hosted the 2017 PGA Championship as well as the 2022 President’s Cup. This is a Par 71 tournament with three Par 5 holes. This course is one of the longest on the tour consisting of 7558 yards. Six of the Par 4 holes are at least 460 yards long. Just under 73% of the second shots on this course are from 150 yards or further away from the tee for the professionals. The fairways are wide with an average distance of 33.4 yards. The rough is thick up to 2 1/2 inches of ryegrass. Water hazards impact seven of the holes and there are 61 sand bunkers. The putting surface consists of new TIF Eagle Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis grass. The greens average 6578 square feet while reaching up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The forecast calls for some possible rain on Thursday. With 69 professionals competing this week with no weekend cut, this is the sixth signature event on the tour this year with the more lucrative payouts.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Tommy Fleetwood (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fleetwood (7012) versus Patrick Cantlay (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 11:10 AM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Tommy Fleetwood who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. Fleetwood is in great form right now with three top-tens in his last tournaments. He followed up a tie for seventh place at the Valero Texas Open a week before a tie for third place at the Masters last month. He finished in tenth place at the Genesis Invitational in February. He splits his time between the PGA Tour and the DP Tour in Europe — so his Shots-Gained metrics need to be taken with a grain of salt since he typically only plays the most challenging events. He won the Dubai Invitational in January which was his seventh victory on the DP Tour. Fleetwood now has seven top-four finishes at a major championship after last week including a runner-up at the British Open and the US Open. He has three top-fives at the US Open — and he currently ranks 11th in the world rankings. Fleetwood is one of the best players in the world with his short game. He ranked 14th on the tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Putting. For the 2024 season, he ranks 15th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and 17th in Scrambling — and skill Around the Green is important at Quail Hollow. Four of the top-six finishers last year finished in the top six in Scrambling. While Fleetwood is still searching for his first win on the PGA Tour — this course has served as the breakout location for Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, and Clark last year all lifted their first trophy on the PGA Tour. He has played well here as well. After finishing tied for 14th place in 2021, he returned in 2023 to finish tied for fifth place. This could finally be the week.
Fleetwood is linked with Patrick Cantlay in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Cantlay has not won a PGA Tour event in over two years. There are signs he is breaking out of his slump to start the year — he finished tied for 13th place at the Masters before a tie for third place at the RBC Heritage. But he is still an underlay relative to his odds based on his past reputation — especially when compared to Fleetwood. Cantlay has struggled with his irons — he ranks 119th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks 74th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Part of Cantlay’s problems this year is that he has lost length off his driver — he ranks 102nd in Driving Distance. He ranks 65th in Shots-Gained: Off-the Tee. Cantlay does not have a great track record at this course either. He finished in 33rd place at the 2017 PGA Championship before missing the cut at the 2018 Wells Fargo. His best finish was last year in his third trip to this course when he finished in 21st place. He was in better form last year than he is right now. Take Fleetwood (7012) versus Cantlay (7008) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship. This golf resort hosted the 2017 PGA Championship as well as the 2022 President’s Cup. This is a Par 71 tournament with three Par 5 holes. This course is one of the longest on the tour consisting of 7558 yards. Six of the Par 4 holes are at least 460 yards long. Just under 73% of the second shots on this course are from 150 yards or further away from the tee for the professionals. The fairways are wide with an average distance of 33.4 yards. The rough is thick up to 2 1/2 inches of ryegrass. Water hazards impact seven of the holes and there are 61 sand bunkers. The putting surface consists of new TIF Eagle Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis grass. The greens average 6578 square feet while reaching up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The forecast calls for some possible rain on Thursday. With 69 professionals competing this week with no weekend cut, this is the sixth signature event on the tour this year with the more lucrative payouts.
BEST BET: Wyndham Clark (+1400 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Clark (7007) versus Patrick Cantlay (7008) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 11:10 AM ET.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Wyndham Clark who is limited at +1400 odds at DraftKings. Clark won this tournament last year — and he has been on a roll since. He later won the US Open and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM. He finished tied for second place at THE Players Championship in March — and he comes off a tie for third place at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago. He is a great fit for this course because he hits it long and has no major weaknesses in his game. He ranks sixth on the tour in Driving Distance. He is 14th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 11th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks ninth in Shots-Gained: Putting. Overall, Clark is second on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Total.
Clark is linked with Patrick Cantlay in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Cantlay has not won a PGA Tour event in over two years. There are signs he is breaking out of his slump to start the year — he finished tied for 13th place at the Masters before a tie for third place at the RBC Heritage. But he is still an underlay relative to his odds based on his past reputation — especially when compared to Clark. Cantlay has struggled with his irons — he ranks 119th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks 74th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Part of Cantlay’s problems this year is that he has lost length off his driver — he ranks 102nd in Driving Distance. He ranks 65th in Shots-Gained: Off-the Tee. Cantlay does not have a great track record at this course either. He finished in 33rd place at the 2017 PGA Championship before missing the cut at the 2018 Wells Fargo. His best finish was last year in his third trip to this course when he finished in 21st place. He was in better form last year than he is right now. Take Clark (7007) versus Cantlay (7008) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
Frank Sawyer offers unmatched handicapping analysis over a diverse array of sports for his Hollywood Sports clients. Frank combines his over twenty years of experience as a professional sports handicapper with the drive to outwork his competition. Why invest in a sports service? Frank answers that question with a proven methodology. His model for success starts by investing a significant amount of time analyzing each team in the sports he handicaps to serve as a foundation for that season. Frank then combines his team assessments with empirical situational handicapping angles along with the latest in cutting edge analytics to identify value in the betting line. Decades of handicapping experience along with his unrelenting focus are the qualities that Frank offers his clients. Frank produces extensive reports that detail his decisions. He does this for two reasons: (1) clients deserve to see the work that goes into a conclusion and (2) Frank’s attention to detail within these reports validates to his clients that he continues to work tirelessly to unearth winning angles. With that ambition in mind, Frank has expanded his areas of interest and scrutiny to include the English Premier League, the PGA Tour, the WNBA, and UFC/Boxing in recent years to go along with the major four sports of football, basketball, baseball, and hockey along with the Canadian Football League, Horse Racing, and World Cup Soccer that he has specialized in since he began Hollywood Sports in 1997. Frank believes long-term success involves not only continuing to dig deeper into the sports that he covers but also in expanding his horizons with new events that can provide additional tools in his handicapping toolbox with the goal of rewarding his clients for their loyalty over the years.
Frank uses a rating an 8*, 10*, 20*, 25* rating system that also serves a guide for money management: 10* plays warrant a standard bet (and 8* plays warrant 80% of a standard bet); 20* plays should see a doubling of that standard bet; 25* plays are Frank’s highest-rated play with the recommendation to invest 2.5 times the standard bet. For Frank’s futures reports or for events with odds such as PGA events or horse races, Frank usually offers three recommendations in his betting report: his Best Bet for the event; his Top Overlay Bet which presents his best value play relative to the odds for the event: and his Long Shot Bet for a big underdog offer value with its potential big payout. Frank’s signature play his “A-List* release which is reserved for rare and elite betting opportunities.
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